For my hormones class, I've been reading a book about false beliefs and how and why people make them (we're in the research section right now). Professionals, lay people, mothers, soccer coaches, all of these people seem to make two types of errors that lead to believing something is real, fact, etc. when it actually isn't.

1) A truly random sequence doesn't look random to us. Best example is a coin. Most people thinking of whether it lands heads (H) or tails (T) would say this is random:

HTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTHTH

Well it isn't. Actually randomness sortof looks like it has patterns to it:

THHHTTHHHHTHTTHTTTH

This non-random looking pattern leads to all sorts of theories about "streaks" of good luck in games, like basketball fans and players to creating a myth they call the "hot hand." Basically if you shoot a few baskets, you're gonna shoot a few more...and if you miss a few, you're gonna miss more (like hot and cold streaks in gambling). Studies show this "hot hands" phenomena is just chance, but people think the researchers are wrong.

2) This is a bit more abstract. Say someone does incredibly well on a test, has a great performance, etc. You expect that person to do just as good a job the next time they do it, right?

Well this doesn't necessarily happen either. If you do extraordinarily good at something, you're performance is more likely to deteriorate slightly. Same as if you do something very badly: you do better the next time around (like dating!...er...nevermind).

Take teaching a kid how to behave. All sorts of social psychologists say rewarding kids for good behavior is more useful than punishing them for bad behavior.

If a kid is behaving badly and you punish them, they'll behave better not because of the treatment, just because that's what happens to people and performing any task.

Same thing with rewards for good behavior. Say a kid is really well behaved and you reward them...then they use your armoire as a toilet. You think the reward didn't do much good and you punish the kid. So it seems like punishing the kid does more good than rewarding them, since they behave better after they've been bad.

Good to bad behavior or vice-versa, it's equally likely for kids. We only seem to notice when they behave badly, though, so punishment seems more effective...even though it's just natural variation.

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So ah, I'm fine. Ok bye.

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